The GOP took control of the Senate in the 2014 midterm elections and increased their control of the House of
Representatives. While it is essentially the rule that the party in the White
House will lose Congressional seats in midterm elections, these results were
particularly difficult on President Obama and the Democrats. Unified government
has been rare in recent decades. Presidents Clinton and Obama each enjoyed
Democratic control of Congress for only two years during their administrations
while President George W. Bush enjoyed Republican dominance in Congress for
more than half of his two terms in the White House. President Obama will finish
his second term as a lame duck.
While even a crystal ball would be
inadequate to predict what Congress or the White House may attempt to do in the
next two years, the following is a list of likely possibilities.
1. The Budget
The continuing resolution, the funding bill
which keeps the federal government from shutting down, expires on December 11. Incoming Republican Senate Majority leader vows that although the GOP plans to use the budget to force President Obama
to change policies, there will not be a government shutdown. It is likely that
another continuing resolution will be passed by the outgoing Congress before
the end of the year. The budget battle in 2015 may prove to be very
interesting, however. There is likely to be a bitter split within the Republican
Party in Congress between Tea Party legislators such as Ted Cruz and Rand Paul
and the more moderate Rockefeller RINO types.
House Republicans are likely to be more conservative, but their
Republican colleagues in the Senate are likely to be wary of pushing a budget
that may be seen as too extreme. In 2016, 24 of the 34 Senators up for re-election will be Republicans, and several of these
will be from traditionally blue states. This strongly suggests that to avoid a
shutdown and to avoid the appearance of extremism that could harm moderate
Republican re-election bids in 2016, the GOP will steer a cautious course and
attempt to pass a budget that is bipartisan.
2. Keystone XL Pipeline
After the budget, the top GOP priority with
their new majority is to pass a bill for the controversial Keystone XL Pipeline, a 1,660-mile pipeline from Alberta,
Canada, to Texas that has been under consideration for six years. The State
Department has been reviewing the pipeline proposal, and a pending lawsuit
involving the pipeline’s route through Nebraska has left this review in limbo.
While it appears that the Senate has a filibuster proof majority in favor of
the pipeline, it is unclear whether there are enough votes (67) to override a
veto. President Obama is likely to veto any Keystone XL Pipeline bill that may
pass before the State Department completes its review. However, if the issues
concerning Nebraska and any other similar issues can be resolved, there is a
good chance that a compromise can be hammered out between the GOP and the
Democrats. With the economy likely to remain a major issue in 2016, President
Obama may be willing to desert his environmentalist activist supporters in
order to help bring about what is a widely popular piece of legislation.
3. Immigration
President Obama continues to claim that he will seek to do something major on immigration before the end
of the year, likely some form of amnesty for illegal aliens. Senator Ted Cruz
and five other Republican Senators have warned that they will do everything possible to prevent the President from
doing an end run around Congress on the immigration issue. Dealing with
immigration is a power directly given to Congress in the Constitution. Any
attempts on the part of President Obama to grant amnesty through executive
action would be blatantly unconstitutional. With the problematic Obamacare as his only
true domestic achievement, the lame duck President may very well risk the
fallout that will result and bring about amnesty through Executive Order. Americans are divided on the issue of amnesty
for illegal immigrants. In a recent Huffington Post/YouGov poll conducted just prior to the midterm elections, 46% opposed a pathway
to citizenship for illegal immigrants while 40% were in favor. President
Obama’s handling of the immigration issue was among the lowest in terms of approval by the American public, resulting in any action
on it being delayed until after the election. President Obama has shown little
respect for the Constitution and has defied the limitations that it imposes
again and again. However, there may be room for a compromise that will give
President Obama the amnesty that he seeks while granting the GOP the stricter
border control that it desires. Mitt Romney has recently suggested that the GOP should pass immigration reform that includes some form of
amnesty. While there is evidence that the GOP can succeed in the near future and win elections even
without passing amnesty, mainstream Republicans may do it in an attempt to
broaden its appeal among Latino voters with the 2016 election in mind.
President Reagan, who was more conservative than the average mainstream
Republican Senator today, compromised on amnesty in 1986, so it is not implausible that the
GOP will do something similar before the 2016 elections.
4. War
President Obama’s foreign policy has been a
disaster. He has acted unconstitutionally by waging war in Libya against the
Qaddafi regime and in Iraq and Syria against the Islamic State. He has
indirectly aided the Islamic State and other Jihadists in Syria and Iraq. He
continues his unconstitutional drone campaign in Yemen, Pakistan, and
Afghanistan. All of this continues to threaten the United States with future
blowback. In addition, President Obama continues to maintain a posture with
Russia that is further threatening to reignite the Cold War.
Most Republicans in the Congress are not
noninterventionists like former Congressman Ron Paul or foreign policy realists
like Senator Rand Paul. Therefore, it is increasingly likely that the
GOP-controlled Congress will sanction President Obama’s unconstitutional warmongering,
blessing it with the illusion of constitutionality. Congress may even encourage
President Obama to widen the war against the Islamic State. Given that the GOP
has favored invasion, regime change, and nation building over the Democrat
strategy of more selective bombing and droning, the likelihood is that
President Obama will continue or even escalate his warmongering approach to
foreign policy during the next two years.
5. Audit the Fed
Former Congressman Ron Paul fought in vain
for years to pass legislation to audit the Federal Reserve. A version of Paul’s
bill was passed in the House, but Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid
continually prevented a similar measure from being voted upon in the Senate.
Senator Ted Cruz has vowed that a GOP takeover in the Senate would mean that the auditing the
Federal Reserve would become a top Republican priority. This raises many
questions which will be answered over the next two years. Will the GOP have the
courage to pass Audit the Fed in the Senate? Would President Obama veto such a
bill? Could supporters find enough votes to override a veto? Would an audit of
the Federal Reserve truly have teeth? What would an honest and thorough audit
of the Federal Reserve find? How would the American people react?
6. Obamacare
Senator Mitch McConnell, the soon to be
Republican Senate Majority Leader, has already openly stated that a full repeal of Obamacare is not on his mind. While, of course,
President Obama would veto any such legislation, the fact that the GOP is
unwilling to even use that option to make a statement speaks volumes. McConnell
claims instead that the GOP will use the appropriations process in order to
bring about a “partial” repeal of Obamacare.
What does this mean? In short, it means that
Obamacare is here to stay. The GOP will at most attempt to tweak it a little
bit around the edges, perhaps saving pennies on the dollar. However, as almost
always, big government never gets any smaller. Despite having had majorities in
the past and having had full control of the federal government at times in the
recent past, the GOP has never repealed any Collectivist Nanny State
Progressive machinery. The New Deal is alive and well as is the Great Society’s
“War on Poverty” and the Department of Education. In addition, the GOP has made government even
larger when it could, adding Nixon’s “War on Drugs” and Bush’s Department of
Homeland Security. Not only will Obamacare still be around come 2016, it is
likely that similar to the unconstitutional programs of the New Deal, Obamacare
will still be around 75 years in the future.
(For a much more detailed discussion of
government and political issues, read my new book The Real Culture War: Individualism
vs. Collectivism & How Bill O’Reilly Got It All Wrong. Available
now on Amazon
in both print
and Kindle.)
