Doomed to Repeat It

by Dr. Gerard Emershaw

On June 28, 1914, Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, was assassinated by members of the Serbian nationalist group Young Bosnia, which was funded by the Black Hand, a secret military society with close ties to the Serbian military. On July 28, 1914, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia after the Serbian government refused to suppress the Black Hand, arrest two officials suspected of taking part in the assassination plot, allow the Austrian police to investigate Serbian links to the assassination, and stop Serbian smuggling of weapons to Bosnian separatists within Austria. Taking active part in the assassination of the heir to the throne of another nation is an unambiguous act of war. If a foreign power had clear links to the assassination of an American Vice President or President-Elect, it is reasonable to conclude that the United States would have the right to declare war upon that nation.

What would the likely result of two Central European kingdoms such as Austria-Hungary and Serbia going to war in 1914 have been? Serbia was battle tested, having been on the winning side of the Balkan Wars against the Ottoman Empire and Bulgaria in 1912–1913. Thus, even though Austria-Hungary was much more powerful and had a far greater population than Serbia, Serbia would not be easy to conquer. Austria-Hungary was already a basket case. After having annexed Bosnia in 1908, Austria-Hungary was facing an increasingly hostile and violent separatist movement. The polyglot empire was dealing with the rising tide of panslavism, which made it unlikely that Austria-Hungary would be able to hold onto its Balkan possessions for long, let alone add Serbia to it. If Austria-Hungary did conquer Serbia, this domination would not have lasted for long. Like the  Indian subcontinent following independence from the United Kingdom and like Iraq today, Austria-Hungary was doomed to collapse and splinter sooner rather than later. Most likely both sides would have soon found it had no taste for more war. Serbia may have thrown Austria-Hungary a bone by scapegoating the Black Hand and causing the heads of a few of its officials to role. Austria-Hungary may have extended more autonomy to Bosnia. The Austria-Hungarian–Serbian War of 1914 would most likely have wound up a small footnote in history remembered, like the Balkan Wars, only by extreme history buffs.

Alas, this conflict did not remain a small and regional war. On July 31, Russia mobilized against Austria-Hungary. Germany in turn declared war on Russia. Germany then signed a secret alliance with the Ottoman Empire, invaded Luxembourg, declared war on France, and invaded Belgium when it denied Germany permission to pass through to the French border. On August 4, the United Kingdom declared war on Germany. By 1917, warmongering American President Woodrow Wilson coaxed the United States Congress to enter the war on the side of Serbia, Russia, France, and the United Kingdom. All told, over 30 countries became involved in what became known as the Great War. The War to End All Wars. Of course, despite over 20 million casualties, it was only the warm up act to World War II. As a result of this small regional conflict getting out of control and being used as an excuse for imperialist tyrants to settle nationalistic and colonial scores against one another, the seeds of Nazism, International Communism, and Middle East unrest were planted.

Russia and Germany had no interest in the conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia. Leaders must not allow themselves to become enslaved by alliances. As a result of becoming involved in a war despite the fact that neither Russia nor Germany was attacked, the Russian and German people unnecessarily suffered. Russia suffered over 9 million casualties—a staggering 76.3% of the forces it mobilized. As a result, the government fell and the Soviets began their 70-year reign of terror. Germany suffered over 7 million casualties—almost 65% of the forces it mobilized. The reparations that the victorious Allies forced upon Germany would ultimately destroy it economically and kill German democracy along with the economy. Nazism rose.

Warmongering world leaders did not learn their lesson despite all the suffering caused by the Great War. When Germany invaded Poland, France and the United Kingdom declared war upon Germany, setting off World War II. Germany had not attacked France or the United Kingdom. In 1939, Poland was essentially a right-wing totalitarian government ruled by an oligarchy known as “Pilsudski’s colonels.” France and the United Kingdom had no interest in propping up this corrupt regime, and they certainly had no right to demand their citizens sacrifice blood and treasure to support a foreign military dictatorship.

Similarly, Japan invaded China in 1937, clashed with the Soviet Union and Mongolia in 1938, and set its sights on South Pacific domination by invading French Indochina. The United States renounced trade with Japan in 1940 and placed an oil embargo on it, essentially setting the stage for an economic war that would inevitably lead to a real war between the nations. Japan had not attacked the United States, and the United States had no true interest in China or the South Pacific. Despite desperately needing petroleum to run its fascist war machine, Japan should not have bombed Pearl Harbor. Likewise, alliance or no alliance, Germany should not have declared war on the United States following the American declaration of war on Japan in the wake of Pearl Harbor.

If the fascist Polish government were replaced with Nazi rule, what difference did it really make to France and the United Kingdom? Instead of brazenly and foolhardily declaring war against Hitler, the two nations should have simply fortified their defenses and prepared to defend themselves against Germany in the event of an attack. They should have waited and allowed the inevitable war between the megalomaniacal tyrants Hitler and Stalin to take place. The United States should have continued to trade with Japan. What difference did it make if Indochina was enslaved by the French or the Japanese? The Japanese would eventually have been involved in battling against fierce insurgencies in China and Indochina. The United States had no real interest in either the Chinese or the Vietnamese.

The failure to learn the lessons of the Great War led to World War II which produced over 61 million deaths and led to the Cold War. Surely, the United States had to have learned the lesson by now, right?

Ukraine is a right-wing nation whose government contains Neo-Nazi elements. Its government has been making dubious claims that Russia has already invaded. Ukraine has not attacked or threatened to attack the United States. Russian separatists in Ukraine have not attacked or threatened to attack the United States. Russia has not attacked or threatened to attack the United States. It makes no difference whether Ukraine is ruled entirely by Ukrainian fascists or split apart and ruled partly by Ukrainian fascists and partly by pro-Russian communists.

It also makes no difference if Putin decides to embrace his inner-Stalin and re-annex Ukraine. Vlad may fancy having his photo taken without a shirt. He may enjoy acting like an alpha dog—or perhaps like a rabid dog. However, a new Russian Empire is destined to collapse just like the Soviet Union. Russia is not a vibrant free market nation. It is 140th in the world in terms of economic freedom. The Russian economy is a schizophrenic mix of communism, fascism, corporatism, and gangsterism. If the tyrannical and deluded Putin wishes to pretend that he is Stalin and that it is the twentieth century, why stop him? Russia is no threat to the United States. The Cold Warriors who fearmongered about the Soviet Union during the twentieth century were not free market capitalists. They were mostly fascists and corporatists who had no true faith in free market capitalism. It was never truly a matter of whether the United States or the Soviet Union would prevail during the Cold War. It was always just a matter of when communism would lead the Soviet Union to economically collapse. The same is true today. Russia’s centrally controlled and unfree economy will eventually collapse.

It is time to finally learn from history and not again be doomed to repeat it. The United States should not rattle any sabers at Russia over Ukraine. The United States should not even contemplate any intervention in Ukraine. There is simply nothing to be gained. No upside. The potential downside, though perhaps unlikely, is a wider war. Perhaps even World War III. The point is that regional conflicts can widen and get out of control. Why risk it? Especially in service of a fascist nation which seems intent on ginning up a wider war with its dubious tales of Russian invasion?