Saturday, April 12, 2014

New Poll on the Pulse of America and the Future



by Gerard Emershaw
 
Reason–Rupe recently polled 1,003 adults on a number of important  social and political issues. The results present an interesting picture of the attitudes of Americans and give hints of what may be ahead for the nation. What follows is a summary and analysis of some of the data revealed by the poll.

Satisfaction (or lack thereof)

According to the poll, 30% believe that the United States is headed in the “right direction” while 60% believe that it is headed in the “wrong direction.” Only 43% approved of President Obama’s performance while 51% disapprove. Only a tiny 7% approve of the job that Congress is doing while 74% disapprove. One would think that this indicates a likelihood for political change in November of 2014 and 2016 at the polls. One may be wrong about that. Regarding the hot button issue of “Obamacare,” 36% have a favorable opinion of the law while 53% have an unfavorable opinion. All this suggests that President Obama’s presidency is viewed as a failure by the American people as he heads toward lame duck status.

The 2014 and 2016 Elections

40% said that if Congressional elections were held today they would vote for a Democratic candidate while 36% said they would vote for a Democratic candidate. 29% said that they would prefer the Democrats to control Congress, 24% said that they would prefer the Republicans to control Congress, and 43% would prefer neither in control. This indicates that most likely the current status quo will be maintained after the elections later this year with the Democrats maintaining control of the Senate and the Republicans maintaining control of the House. Divided government is often good since it means that fewer laws are likely to be passed.

2016 looks gloomy to say the least. A whopping 64% of self-identified Democrats say they would vote for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary. While Republicans are divided, the highest total is 15% who say they would vote for Mike Huckabee. However, Independents favor Rand Paul over Mike Huckabee. It does not require Nostradamus to tell that Mike Huckabee will never be president. If the Republicans do nominate such a candidate, Hillary Clinton will certainly win the White House in 2016 if she opts to run.

Of those surveyed, 23% identified as Republicans, 31% identified as Democrats, and 38% identified as Independents. This indicates that unless a Republican candidate can win a large majority of Independents, a Democrat is likely to win the White House in 2016. A candidate such as Mike Huckabee will simply not appeal to Independents. According to the poll, only 3% of Independents would vote for Huckabee in a Republican primary compared with 11% for Rand Paul, 8% for Paul Ryan, 8% for Chris Christie, and 6% for Jeb Bush.

Minimum Wage

On the issue of raising the minimum wage, the survey found that 67% favor and 32% oppose. A plurality of 40% believe that raising the minimum wage will have no effect on jobs, while 38% believe that it will increase the number of jobs, and 20% believe that it will somehow miraculously increase the number of jobs. When it is stipulated that raising the minimum wage would decrease the number of jobs by causing employers to lay off workers, 58% oppose raising minimum wage while 39% still favor it. When it is stipulated that raising minimum wage will lead to price increases, 51% favored raising it while 46% opposed.

Raising the minimum wage is almost certainly going to lead to both fewer jobs and higher prices. The fact that the majority do not want to raise minimum wage if it leads to lost jobs is a good sign. However, the economic illiteracy demonstrated here is a bit troubling.

Foreign Policy

The poll indicates that Americans are weary of American interventionist foreign policy. When it comes to the present situation in Ukraine, 58% said that the United States should stay out of the situation, 31% said that the United States should continue imposing economic sanctions, while a mere 8% were apocalyptic-minded enough to say that the United States should send troops and assets to Ukraine.

Even if Russia were to invade Ukraine, Americans are wary of intervention. In such a situation, 76% would oppose sending American troops while only 20% would favor it. Regarding military aid and weapons to Ukraine, 62% oppose and 33% favor. Unfortunately, Americans still appear to believe in the morality and effectiveness of sanctions as 61% would favor imposing stricter economic sanctions against Russia if it invades Ukraine while 32% oppose. However, overall this paints a picture of a growing spirit of non-interventionism in the United States.

Privacy

Americans believe that the NSA (36%) is more likely to invade their privacy than Facebook (26%), the IRS (18%), or Google (12%). However, they trust the IRS (35%) and the NSA (18%) more with their private information than Google (10%) or Facebook (5%). While the country is becoming so blatantly corporatist that sometimes it is difficult to determine where the government ends and powerful crony capitalist corporations begin, it is alarming that people would trust the government more than private internet companies when it comes to their private information. Companies like Google and Facebook clearly spy on their users. However, they are most likely to use this information to sell to other companies or to tailor the experience of their websites with particularity for their users. Even if these companies do abuse or misuse private data, they do not possess the ability to herd their users into prisons or concentration camps or assassinate them like the federal government does.

Big Government

Finally, Americans appear to favor a smaller rather than bigger and more powerful federal government. 50% believe “The less government the better,” while 47% believe “There are more things government should be doing.” 54% believe “People would be better able to handle today’s problems within a free market with less government involvement” while 43% believe “We need a strong government to handle today’s complex economic problems.” 49% believe government should not favor any particular values while 47% believe that government should promote traditional values.

This all suggests that Americans are now beginning to feel that the moralistic Nanny State needs to be scaled back. However, the problem is that people often claim to favor smaller government up until the point that they find out that smaller government means that they will be receiving fewer goodies from the government. It remains to be seen whether Americans are in love with smaller government or merely with the idea of smaller government. The former requires sacrifices while the latter is purely hypothetical and costs nothing. Of course, the latter also solves nothing.

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