by Gerard Emershaw
Reason–Rupe recently polled
1,003 adults on a number of important
social and political issues. The results present an interesting picture
of the attitudes of Americans and give hints of what may be ahead for the
nation. What follows is a summary and analysis of some of the data revealed by
the poll.
Satisfaction (or lack
thereof)
According to the poll, 30%
believe that the United States
is headed in the “right direction” while 60% believe that it is headed in the
“wrong direction.” Only 43% approved of President Obama’s performance while 51%
disapprove. Only a tiny 7% approve of the job that Congress is doing while 74%
disapprove. One would think that this indicates a likelihood for political
change in November of 2014 and 2016 at the polls. One may be wrong about that.
Regarding the hot button issue of “Obamacare,” 36% have a favorable opinion of
the law while 53% have an unfavorable opinion. All this suggests that President
Obama’s presidency is viewed as a failure by the American people as he heads
toward lame duck status.
The 2014 and 2016
Elections
40% said that if Congressional
elections were held today they would vote for a Democratic candidate while 36%
said they would vote for a Democratic candidate. 29% said that they would
prefer the Democrats to control Congress, 24% said that they would prefer the
Republicans to control Congress, and 43% would prefer neither in control. This
indicates that most likely the current status quo will be maintained after the
elections later this year with the Democrats maintaining control of the Senate
and the Republicans maintaining control of the House. Divided government is often
good since it means that fewer laws are likely to be passed.
2016 looks gloomy to say the
least. A whopping 64% of self-identified Democrats say they would vote for
Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary. While Republicans
are divided, the highest total is 15% who say they would vote for Mike
Huckabee. However, Independents favor Rand Paul over Mike Huckabee. It does not
require Nostradamus to tell that Mike Huckabee will never be president. If the
Republicans do nominate such a candidate, Hillary Clinton will certainly win
the White House in 2016 if she opts to run.
Of those surveyed, 23% identified
as Republicans, 31% identified as Democrats, and 38% identified as
Independents. This indicates that unless a Republican candidate can win a large
majority of Independents, a Democrat is likely to win the White House in 2016.
A candidate such as Mike Huckabee will simply not appeal to Independents.
According to the poll, only 3% of Independents would vote for Huckabee in a
Republican primary compared with 11% for Rand Paul, 8% for Paul Ryan, 8% for
Chris Christie, and 6% for Jeb Bush.
Minimum Wage
On the issue of raising the
minimum wage, the survey found that 67% favor and 32% oppose. A plurality of
40% believe that raising the minimum wage will have no effect on jobs, while
38% believe that it will increase the number of jobs, and 20% believe that it
will somehow miraculously increase the number of jobs. When it is stipulated
that raising the minimum wage would decrease the number of jobs by causing
employers to lay off workers, 58% oppose raising minimum wage while 39% still
favor it. When it is stipulated that raising minimum wage will lead to price
increases, 51% favored raising it while 46% opposed.
Raising the minimum wage is
almost certainly going to lead to both fewer jobs and higher prices. The fact
that the majority do not want to raise minimum wage if it leads to lost jobs is
a good sign. However, the economic illiteracy demonstrated here is a bit
troubling.
Foreign Policy
The poll indicates that Americans
are weary of American interventionist foreign policy. When it comes to the
present situation in Ukraine,
58% said that the United States
should stay out of the situation, 31% said that the United
States should continue imposing economic
sanctions, while a mere 8% were apocalyptic-minded enough to say that the United
States should send troops and assets to Ukraine.
Even if Russia
were to invade Ukraine,
Americans are wary of intervention. In such a situation, 76% would oppose
sending American troops while only 20% would favor it. Regarding military aid
and weapons to Ukraine,
62% oppose and 33% favor. Unfortunately, Americans still appear to believe in
the morality and effectiveness of sanctions as 61% would favor imposing stricter
economic sanctions against Russia
if it invades Ukraine
while 32% oppose. However, overall this paints a picture of a growing spirit of
non-interventionism in the United States.
Privacy
Americans believe that the NSA
(36%) is more likely to invade their privacy than Facebook (26%), the IRS
(18%), or Google (12%). However, they trust the IRS (35%) and the NSA (18%)
more with their private information than Google (10%) or Facebook (5%). While
the country is becoming so blatantly corporatist that sometimes it is difficult
to determine where the government ends and powerful crony capitalist
corporations begin, it is alarming that people would trust the government more
than private internet companies when it comes to their private information.
Companies like Google and Facebook clearly spy on their users. However, they
are most likely to use this information to sell to other companies or to tailor
the experience of their websites with particularity for their users. Even if
these companies do abuse or misuse private data, they do not possess the
ability to herd their users into prisons or concentration camps or assassinate
them like the federal government does.
Big Government
Finally, Americans appear to
favor a smaller rather than bigger and more powerful federal government. 50%
believe “The less government the better,” while 47% believe “There are more
things government should be doing.” 54% believe “People would be better able to
handle today’s problems within a free market with less government involvement”
while 43% believe “We need a strong government to handle today’s complex
economic problems.” 49% believe government should not favor any particular
values while 47% believe that government should promote traditional values.
This all suggests that Americans
are now beginning to feel that the moralistic Nanny
State needs to be scaled back.
However, the problem is that people often claim to favor smaller government up
until the point that they find out that smaller government means that they will
be receiving fewer goodies from the government. It remains to be seen whether
Americans are in love with smaller government or merely with the idea of
smaller government. The former requires sacrifices while the latter is purely
hypothetical and costs nothing. Of course, the latter also solves nothing.
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