Predator Drones: Over 4700 Served

According to Senator Lindsey Graham, the death toll from United States drone strikes is approximately 4700. This is significant since it marks the first time that any American politician has referred to a specific number. Assuming that this figure accurate, the natural question to consider is how many of these drone fatalities were innocent civilians. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism – a non-profit London-based organization – estimates that there have been between 3043 and 4346 individuals killed in U.S. drone attacks in Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia between 2002 and 2013. It estimates that between 446 and 990 of those killed were civilians and that between 193 and 245 of these were children. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism does not provide estimates for U.S. drone fatalities in other nations including Afghanistan, Libya, and Iraq.

Predictably, the United States government denies that large numbers of civilians are being killed in drone strikes. In January of 2012, President Obama said: “I want to make sure that people understand actually drones have not caused a huge number of civilian casualties.” One of the reasons that President Obama would claim this is that his administration uses a dubious method for determining whether a drone fatality is in fact a “militant.” In May of 2012, it was revealed that the administration’s method “counts all military-age males in a strike zone as combatants … unless there is explicit intelligence posthumously proving them innocent.” Guilty until proven posthumously innocent.

According to a report released by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism in February of 2012, the Obama administration has been using chilling tactics in its drone strikes in Pakistan. The drones have been used to target civilian rescuers who have responded to help victims of drone strikes and have also been used to target funerals. This tactic is certainly cruel and could very well be illegal under international law.

This drone campaign has the potential to become an endless Orwellian war. The dubious 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force states:

That the President is authorized to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons, in order to prevent any future acts of international terrorism against the United States by such nations, organizations or persons.

Unless the Congress eventually acts to end the unconstitutional quasi-war against terrorism, there is no reason to believe that it will ever end. What would constitute a natural ending to this “war”? As long as al Qaeda exists in any form, the “war” can continue. Given that al Qaeda is a decentralized and loosely grouped organization, it is nearly impossible to determine exactly what constitutes it. What are the criteria for identity over time when it comes to such an organization? It is likely that some group of radical Jihadists or other will always use the name. Will the drone campaign last as long as there is some group allegedly using the name? Does this mean it will last as long as there are Islamic militants who wish harm upon the United States?

One thing that is clear is that the more civilians that are killed by drone strikes, the greater is the potential for future blowback against the United States. The words of former Congressman Ron Paul are most apt here when it comes to the blowback that these drone strikes will undoubtedly create:

If we think that we can do what we want around the world and not incite hatred, then we have a problem. They don't come here to attack us because we're rich and we're free. They come and they attack us because we're over there. I mean, what would we think if we were – if other foreign countries were doing that to us?

Unfortunately, drone strikes are a relatively cheap form of modern warfare. These strikes have also proven to be very popular with the American public. In a Pew Research poll taken in January of 2012, 62% of Americans surveyed approved of U.S.drone strikes. Given that the use of drones does not put any American military personnel at risk, this popularity is not surprising – especially given that over 6,500 Americans lost their lives fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.